Former head of EU military intelligence: the West considers the hybrid threat as the main threat today

The West perceives events in Ukraine as a hybrid operation of Russia and fears of its spread to the Baltic States and other countries. This opinion was expressed on Tuesday by the former head of the Intelligence Directorate of the EU Military Headquarters, the former head of the Military Intelligence of the Finnish Defense Forces, Admiral Georgy Alafuzov at the Ogarkov Readings in Moscow.
"This is perceived both in NATO and in the EU as a planned hybrid operation, which is still ongoing. And there are very serious concerns that this process will continue in the Baltic countries, that it may affect the future of Western Europe. And, of course, Finland and Sweden, which are not members of NATO, will be one of the objects of the hybrid actions that Russia may take, "said Alafuzov.

According to him, this is the “view of the West”, although both sides [Russia and the West] consider the “hybrid threat” as the main one today. “It is considered to be the reason for what we observe, for example, with the question of the future of Ukraine. At that time I headed the EU military intelligence, I was sent to Kiev for two months in the summer of 2014, ”said the admiral.He acknowledged that he also understood the Russian point of view: “In Russia, as I interpret, there is a fear that the West will affect the development of society through a serious impact on the information sphere.”
Alafuzov noted that at present an important place is given to events of information confrontation, "capable in some cases even to change the main geopolitical potential of the state - the national mentality, culture, moral state of people."
Hybrid threats are a direct consequence of technological progress and globalization.According to Alafuzov, the intelligence services of the world are not sufficiently deeply aware of the events taking place due to the whole spectrum of the hybrid threats that have arisen recently, which have become a direct consequence of technological progress and globalization."One of the characteristic trends generated by globalization and the information and communication revolution is the building up of a non-military spectrum of challenges and threats to international, regional and national security, some of which have a fundamentally new quality and are united by the general concept of" hybrid threats ". Intelligence plays an important role in deepening understanding of the evolving situation. I am sure that the intelligence of the world does not understand deeply what is happening around us, "- said the admiral.
According to him, these hybrid threats must be given a legal definition. Otherwise, there is a risk of a large-scale conflict due to unsupported charges in the information space and misinterpretation of the intentions of the parties.
"In the current regulatory and legal uncertainty associated with hybrid military conflicts, it can be expected that pretexts introduced by British diplomacy like“ highly likely ”will be used to substantiate specific military-political decisions (highly likely, translated from English) “With a high degree of probability” - TASS note) and the absence of other plausible explanations. This increases the risk of a large-scale conflict due to incorrect reading of the intentions of the parties, rights howling and terminological uncertainty, "- Alafuzov said.
He noted that the aggravation of the debate around the problem of hybrid wars and hybrid threats is related to the fact that along with traditional challenges and threats to national security, the role of non-military means of achieving political and strategic goals, which in some cases significantly outperform military means, is increasing.
"They are complemented by hidden military measures, including the actions of special operations forces, as well as economic sanctions, using the protest potential of the population. An important place is given to information confrontation measures, which in some cases can even change the main geopolitical potential of the state - the national mentality, culture, and people's moral state "- said the admiral."Ogarkov readings"The Ogarkov Readings conference was organized in Moscow on October 30 by the Center for Strategy and Technology Analysis (CAST). The readings are named after Marshal of the Soviet Union Nikolai Vasilyevich Ogarkov, a prominent military theorist of the second half of the twentieth century, who anticipated a “revolution in military affairs”.
The forum was attended by prominent figures of the armed forces, the defense industry complex, scientists, engineers, and also experts of the Center. They discussed the development of military technologies and their influence on the conduct of hostilities. This year the event was held for the first time, in the plans of the organizers to make it annual.