New evil empire
It is not only hawks and marginals that are forcing passions around US-China relations. The first, at least formally, threw a glove to Beijing, none other than the second person in America, Vice President Mike Pence. And he did it at the very moment when the passion around the accusations against Brett Cavanaugh, proposed by Trump to the US Supreme Court, reached its apogee. Thanks to the hype around Cavano’s appointment as a member of the US Supreme Court, many Americans have missed the biggest change in American policy toward China in the past half century, after Henry Kissinger’s visit to Beijing in 1971, reminds the Wall Street Journal.
Mike Pence announced a sharp turn in American policy toward China in a speech at the Hudson Institute on October 4. Trump's deputy accused the Chinese government as a whole in a dishonest fight against America and promised an adequate response to the machinations of insidious Chinese. The Vice President accused Beijing of all mortal sins, including the oppression of Tibetans and Uighurs, the famous “Made in China 2025” program aimed at achieving superiority in high-tech Chinese; debt diplomacy and a grand project “One Belt, One Way”. In short, the White House accused Beijing of aggression in absolutely all areas: political, economic, military, cultural, ideological, etc.
“China has resorted to unprecedented efforts to influence American public opinion, the elections in 2018 and the general background of the presidential elections of 2020,” said Mike Pence in his loud speech. “This means that President Trump is working effectively and that China wants another president to be America’s head. This means that China is interfering in American democracy. ”
After Pens's speech, you can hear a comparison of his speech with Ronald Reagan's landmark speech, in which he called the Soviet Union an “evil empire,” and even with Winston Churchill's speech in 1946 in Fulton.
A very significant, one might say, Mike Pence program speech was not spontaneous, something like the cry of the soul of a person who, as they say, became painful. It was preceded, for example, by accusations against China Donald Trump, made at the session of the UN General Assembly in New York. Trump, according to the American custom, unprovenly accused China of interfering in the American elections.
Almost simultaneously with the sharp performance of Pens, the command of the US Navy announced an increase in patrolling of the disputed areas of the South China Sea (SCM). The United States, they said, protects freedom of navigation in this important body of water. The People’s Liberation Army of China (PLA) closely watches the patrols of the United States and its allies from outside, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China regularly protests. September 30, Beijing seems to have decided to try out a new tactic that is much more risky than the previous one. When the American destroyer Decatur passed the disputed Spratly archipelago, the Chinese warship caught up with him and, as they say, cut, approaching 40 meters and forcing a sharp change in course to avoid a collision.
If such a reaction from the Chinese to US patrols in the SCM becomes a practice, then this can only mean one thing - that Beijing intends to violate an unofficial agreement with the Americans three years ago regarding the behavior of warships upon meeting.
The signal is clear and unambiguous. However, Beijing’s new determination did not seem to work on the American side. Presidential Assistant for National Security John Bolton said the other day that America will not retreat and will continue to defend freedom of navigation, which, we are sure in America, the Chinese are violating with their actions in the SCM.
Bolton is again clear to everyone and, above all, of course, to the Chinese, he explained that under Trump, the White House will take a more active and tough position than under Barack Obama.
In Washington, they are well aware of the painful points of the Celestial. These, besides the South China Sea, of course, includes Taiwan, which in Beijing stubbornly continues to be considered part of great China, a disobedient province. It is not surprising that every call of the American warship and the visit of every delegation or high politician to Taiwan causes a very painful reaction in Beijing.
Recently, according to Business Insider, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China again expressed "serious concern" about the actions of the United States. Beijing's discontent was triggered by the approach of the US Navy research warship Thomas G. Thompson (T-AGOR-23) to Taiwan.
China's foreign affairs agency stressed that Beijing "is categorically against any relations in the military sphere between the United States and Taiwan." The Chinese side also demanded that the Americans immediately cease all illegal relations and, above all, in the military field with Taiwan, and also urged that all issues relating to Taiwan should be resolved with extreme caution.
Of course, Pens’s super-rigid performance was also promoted by objective sentiments in American society. In particular, among the US military. The results of the survey of the authoritative military edition of the Military Times portal, according to which the US military is afraid of war in the near future with Russia or China, are indicative. Moreover, almost half of the servicemen of the American army believe that they will have to fight against Russia or China next year.
Particularly noteworthy is the fact that for once the war with China in the Armed Forces, the United States is more afraid than with Russia. Among the "pessimists" of the war with China, 24% of respondents are waiting for the war, and with Russia - 18%.
China is rapidly catching up with Russia and as a serious threat to America. In Russia, the growth of pessimism over the past year was 18% (from 53 to 71%), and in China — 34% (from 35 to 69%)!
Democrats have nothing to do but support the White House
Speaking about the general anti-Chinese trend in American politics, we can recall the point in the draft of the new North American free trade agreement - NAFTA, whose participants, that is, the United States, Mexico and Canada should not conclude any agreements with China. The White House hinted that the United States would now strive to include this item in its agreements on a free trade zone with all other countries.
There are more than enough examples of not only negative, but aggressive attitude of America towards China. For example, a week before Mike Pens’s speech, Congress approved a $ 60 billion aid program for states in Asia and Africa, whose main task is to counter the Chinese One Belt, One Road project.
We can also recall the White House report, which emphasizes the danger that foreign suppliers may pose to the Pentagon and the US combat capability in the event that a military conflict begins and they are interrupted.
The struggle between Beijing and Washington is now going on different fronts and continents. The FBI, for example, struck at the Chinese "partners", luring to Belgium, ostensibly to transfer important classified information to US airlines, a high-ranking Chinese intelligence officer Yangjun Xu. Brussels detained the Chinese intelligence officer and, at the request of the US Department of Justice, extradited him to America, which caused anger in China.
Any of the above and many other US actions against China in ordinary times could be a sensation. But now is not the usual times, but the era of Donald Trump, and that says it all.
These actions have remained, at least in America, mostly unnoticed. In vain, because they are evidence of significant changes in American foreign policy. As the contours become clearer in the new round of confrontation between the USA and the PRC, other states will have to express their attitude towards them, and a new international reality will begin to take shape around them.
Perhaps the White House is confident in its forces, but the international situation is now rather in favor of China than against it. Suffice it to recall how much controversy Washington has with its allies and, above all, with Europe. This also includes much more acute contradictions between the United States and Russia, North Korea and Iran. So, in isolation, as they might have hoped in the White House, the Celestial Empire will definitely not be now.
As the implementation of changes in US foreign policy takes place, American companies that are directly or indirectly doing business with China are likely to experience serious difficulties. US presidents have greater authority in trade and investment matters, if it has anything to do with national security. Trump has already fully used these powers to impose, or at least threaten to impose economic and financial sanctions against unwanted countries. By the way, Vice President Pence did not forget about the tested weapons and in his program speech hinted that even more severe sanctions and tariffs are not far off.
The White House report on the dependence of the US military industrial complex on foreign parts and spare parts, for example, is an excellent basis for new and stronger restrictions and sanctions. American business, apparently, still underestimates the determination of Donald Trump and his administration to resist the "peaceful" offensive of China, as well as the scale of economic shocks that could be further increased tensions between the United States and China.
Opponents of China have concluded something like an alliance with "trade" hawks and now, in general, determine the foreign policy of America. National security clearly prevailed over the economy and pushed it into the background. It is not surprising that, in the main, the objections and complaints of American business remain unheard both by the White House and by Congress.
The situation created in recent weeks is doubly or triply dangerous due to the unpredictable behavior of both sides and the difficult to read consequences at this stage for the entire planet, to which the struggle between Beijing and Washington can lead.
The unexpected, at first glance, US aggressiveness can be explained by rapidly approaching mid-term elections in America. Understanding Trump and his assistants is easy, because the fight against China is very popular within America itself. Drawing a Chinese card is a win-win. Moving the fire to the Celestial Empire can help not only divert the attention of American society from Rashagate and ease the pressure on the president, but also cause ordinary voters to have a new surge of patriotism.
Trump's voters, of course, are dissatisfied with the “theft” by the Chinese of jobs in America, human rights violations in the Middle Kingdom, and other problems that are really lacking in China. The American establishment can, of course, object to the tactics of Donald Trump, but he also generally supports the tightening of the White House’s position vis-à-vis China. Business, however, is likely to split into two camps. However, even among American businessmen, patriotism is too strong, to which President Trump and his allies so vigorously resort.
Democrats, if they refuse to support the cold war against China, will drive themselves into a corner. It will not be easy for them to explain why, on the one hand, they so harshly criticize Trump for the allegedly mild attitude towards Vladimir Putin and Russia, which, in their deep conviction, are at least unpatriotic, and on the other, consider a tough stance towards China and oppose it.
Of course, the situation and the balance of power may change, if the political and economic costs of the Cold War with China begin to grow rapidly, but if this happens, not now. Now, the new Chinese policy has few opponents.
China will not allow to treat itself as a minor power
Now is the time to talk about Beijing’s reaction to the declaration of the Cold War by America. “Washington is making accusations without giving evidence, making erroneous conclusions and trying to create something out of thin air,” was followed by an immediate reaction by the representative of the PRC Foreign Ministry, Hua Chunying, to Mike Pens's speech at the Hudson Institute. “The Chinese side strongly opposes such an approach.”
In Beijing, at least, while trying to be calm and trying to convince Washington of the erroneous accusations. The Chinese claim that they are not at all interested in removing Donald Trump. If the Democrats win in November, they say, and if they manage to impeach, the neocon and the hawk Mike Pence will enter the White House. This will lead to a new deterioration in relations with Russia and China. It is not very clear, they say in Beijing, why should China contribute to the victory of the Democrats and this negative scenario for him? The Chinese are not stupid enough to harm themselves.
On the other hand, in Beijing under Xi Jinping, they consider themselves to be a power, if not yet superior to America, then at least equal to it and do not seem to intend to tolerate treatment with themselves as a secondary state. China has, than to respond to the attacks of America. For example, Beijing-owned American debt for an astronomical amount in excess of $ 1 trillion.
How far the contradictions between Beijing and Washington have gone are now probably not very clearly understood even in the capitals of the PRC and the USA. Optimists believe that despite all the drama and seriousness of the current situation, the US’s sharp turn towards confrontation with China, at least, has not yet outweighed the improvement in relations over the past decade and a half. Optimists believe that even taking into account the speech of Pens and the new deterioration of relations between China and the United States, they (the relationship) still have not reached the "bottom". Relationship after the imposition of sanctions against the PRC after the events on Tiananmen Square in 1989 or after the bombing of the Chinese Air Force’s embassy of the PRC in Belgrade ten years later is considered the bottom.
In this regard, the possible meeting of the leaders of China and America at the end of November at the G20 summit in Argentina is very interesting. Experts believe that both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump want to change the relations between the PRC and the United States, but how accurate these forecasts are, only time will tell.
“Taking a very tough position is a reception in a big diplomatic game and trade,” explains Dali Yang, a professor of political economy at the University of Chicago. - By the way, the Chinese leadership is behaving in a generally balanced way and is not in a hurry to set up an almost 1.5 billion country against America. Beijing holds back the tone of the Chinese press. Partners in this subtle "dance" do not stint on harsh statements, but try not to overstep the last line and are closely watching each other's movements. "
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